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Where do Christie’s numbers come from?

New Jersey’s Gov. Christie cancelled the new rail tunnels under the Hudson last week, imperiling federal money directed to the state, citing cost estimates that might be $5 billion higher than previously expected.

However, no one’s provided detail on these estimates yet.  Here’s the chronology, adapted from the memo sent to the governor:

2008 Final Environmental Impact Statement $7.6 billion as detailed here, or at the ArcTunnel Website at Library > FEIS > Volume II > Appendix 10.0
2009 Record of Decision / Final Design $8.7 billion, mostly adding $1 bililon for contingencies as mandated by the FTA
2010 New Jersey Transit $8.7 – $10.0 billion no explanation given
2010 Federal Transit Administration $10.9 – $13.7 billion no explanation given

The Final Environmental Impact Statement was vetted by many stakeholders in the project.  The budget presented there has several pages of details.  If Christie believes that those estimates were off by 50%, and is basing billion-dollar decisions on that, he ought to back that up his opinions with some numbers of his own.

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